Zillow -- Some numbers to help you value the IMT business
Some numbers pulled from past 10Ks, current 10Q and 4Q earnings outlook.
The big news is Zillow (I’m long) is imploding after announcing it’s getting out of the iBuying market.
Is this a dip or a knife?
For right now…the best thing you can do is model the IMT segment.
Here are some key numbers to help you. Keep in mind that Zillow will also be cutting 1/4th of it’s employee force, thus we’ve given you the past 3 years OPEX along with that same number cut by 25%
Balance Sheet
Key Assets
Cash 2.2B
Short Term Investments 1B
Houses 3.7B
Key Liabilities
Borrowings under credit facility 2.7B
Long Term Debt 1.7B
Comments
I would assume a 15% devaluation in houses inventory. If they are able to sell those houses, then Zillow will have about 2B in Cash and Investments when the dust settles.
Zillow IMT Segment Revenues
2021 - 1.40B (9 Months)
2020 - 1.45B
2019 - 1.277B
2018 - 1.201B
2017 - 996M
2016 - 775M
2015 - 600M
Zillow IMT Cost of Revenues
2021 - 141M (9 Months)
2020 - 103M
2019 - 98M
2018 - 96M
2017 - 80M
2016 - 64M
2015 - 55M
Zillow OPEX
2020 - 1.5B
2019 - 1.5B
2018 - 1.2B
Zillow OPEX less 25%
2020 - 1.1B
2019 - 1.1B
2018 - 900M
Zillow Implied Profits Less Offers
2020 - 247M
2019 - 79M
2018 - 204M
Zillow’s Market Cap at time of writing:
18.22B
Less Cash Expected
16.22B
Blended Implied Annual Profits
175M
Implied Price to Earnings
~95
Implied Price to Sales
~10.6 (Using 1.5B in IMT for 2021 [9 mos plus midpoint of guidance]
5 year Revenue Growth of IMT
19% CAGR
Notes
IMT is subject to cyclical volatility.
Other Metrics
Average Monthly Unique Users
2020 - 200.7M
2019 - 172.6M
2018 - 157.2M
2017 - 151.6M
2016 - 140.1M
2015 - 123.7M
5 year CAGR - 10.2%
Visits
2020 - 9.6B
2019 - 8.0B
2018 - 7.1B
2017 - 6.3B
2016 - 5.3B
2015 - 3.99B
5 year CAGR - 19.2%